What were the odds? :3c

i knew from the moment i saw the prices of cooling pouches in kiosks that the players selling them were losing out in the end. i was getting at least 1 +12 ticket every 25-30 cooler chest spins and the rate (just a wild guess) for ice cubes was about 50-60%. out of 100 cooling pouches, id get about 50-60 ice cubes which was about 16-20 cooler spins. cooling pouches on average cost me 350m each so it cost me about 70,000,000,000 to have 1.4 chances to get a +12 ticket. that doesnt include all the abradants, reinforcement stones, books of the beginning, scrolls of challenge, transcendence stones and keys and +10 tickets. it didnt matter if i was paying up to 500m each for cooling pouches, it was a win/win game. it took about 75-90 cooling pouches to get 1 ticket, which means i was paying on average 30b for every +12 ticket i won. the guys selling the cooling pouches could have earned at least 3x as much crone if they had played their spins instead. i played about 600-800 cooling pouches and made off with 8 +12 tickets, at least doubling to tripling my wealth over this weekend event. considering i just started playing a couple of months ago, id say im doing well for myself :) my guess is that each cooling pouch had a .7-1% chance of being the +12 winner. this is all just guessing averages based on my own cooling pouch experience. some players may have done better or worse.

PLZ SOMEONE DO THE MATH AND LET ME KNOW IF IM WRONG :)

FUN FACT!
did you know +1 reinfocement stones have a better chance of getting to +12 than +6 stones? It's true :D the reinforcement system is much like lvl refining used to be, 1 lvl of refinement had better odds of success than 3 lvl refinements. that and i get the feeling that the higher the reinforcement, the lower the odds of success are. meaning, its easier to get to +6 from 0 than it is +12 from +6, but if you +6-10 an item and then use +1 stones to get to 12, you have better odds than with 2 +6 stones. oh, and its easy as hell to make the +1 stones yourself :) the blueprint is available in the crafting studio and you can start making them right away, no training needed :) i did try telling people that im fairly smart :) but they didnt believe me ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ physics, philosophy and psychology. my favorite 3 P's in life :) in that order. i just sound stupid because i dont give a **** about grammar and english is a ****ty language anyways....that and reading/writing is my achilles heel :) sorry people, this isnt a case of Dunning Kruger effect.